Australians Constantly On The Move
The 2016 Census reveals that 43.4% of the Australian population moved house in the previous five years, up from 41.7% in the five years before the 2011 Census.
One third of young Australians aged 20 to 29 changes address every 12 months and two thirds move every five years.
Queensland was the most popular destination for interstate arrivals, gaining 77,050 newcomers but losing 66,480 people to other states, leaving a net gain of 10,570.
Victoria was the most successful state at attracting and retaining residents, receiving 67,190 new arrivals from interstate and losing 52,810 to other states – a net gain of 14,380.
NSW and Western Australia both suffered net losses – 10,830 and 10,240 respectively.
Almost half a million NSW residents (451,630) had lived overseas in the five years leading up to the Census; almost 400,000 Victorians had lived overseas.
NSW, Victoria - Leading Economies
CommSec’s latest State of the States report – an economic scorecard – puts NSW in first place above the other states and territories.
NSW leads on retail trade, equipment investment and dwelling starts, with the latter being 56% above the decade average in the June Quarter. The NSW jobless rate of 4.6% is well below its decade average.
Victoria holds second place; it leads in the areas of construction work and population growth and (like NSW) has a pipeline of major infrastructure projects under way or expected that will help power its economy over coming years. The ACT ranked third and South Australia rose to 4th place.
“Both NSW and Victoria have in common strong population growth, which is creating demand for homes,” says CommSec chief economist Craig James. “And if you’re creating demand for homes you need more builders, tradesmen, architects and the like.”
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Hobart To Lead 2018 Growth
Hobart’s housing market has been tipped to lead the country in 2018, with the largest price growth of any capital city, outperforming Sydney and Melbourne.
Research by SQM Research indicates Hobart can expect price growth between 8% and 13%.
CoreLogic figures for the 12 months to September showed Hobart had seen the highest price growth in the country at 14.3% compared to 12.1% in Melbourne and 10.5% in Sydney.
“Hobart’s property market is expected to remain Australia’s fastest-growing city in 2018, with the combination of a fast economy and housing supply shortages likely to ensure the second year running of double-digit price rises for that city,” SQM managing director Louis Christopher says.
Hobart is very affordable when compared to other states, allowing price growth to be driven by supply and demand.
RBA Cautious About Unit Glut
The Reserve Bank says there are still potential risks posed by the large pipeline of units in key pockets of inner-city Melbourne and Brisbane, but says new stock has been absorbed to date.
It says Melbourne’s strong population growth and declining vacancy rates has been responsible for unit prices falling only slightly.
The RBA says the adjustment in the Brisbane apartment market has not resulted in significant stress, although it has concerns that projects in Brisbane may be delayed or financed by non-bank lenders.
Developers have dismissed concerns about rising interest rates and say that tighter financing is a factor in delays in buyers settling off-the-plan purchases because any valuations below the purchase price can reduce the amount banks will lend.
Developers have conceded that affordability is an issue in Sydney, but note there may be opportunities in Brisbane where prices are considerably lower.
ANZ Fined Over Rate Rigging
ANZ reached a last-minute settlement (reportedly worth $50 million) with ASIC just as the Federal Court trial over rate rigging was about to begin.
ASIC has accused ANZ, Westpac and National Australia Bank of rigging the bank bill swap rate (BBSW), a key benchmark rate that is used when setting the cost of business loans. ANZ was accused of breaking the law on 44 occasions, from 2010 to 2012, and influencing the setting of the BBSW to maximise its profit.
NAB has also been in negotiations with ASIC over rate rigging while it is believed Westpac is reluctant to settle.
Until now, a key stumbling block to a settlement has been ASIC’s pressure for banks to admit to wrongdoing, which could leave the lenders exposed to class actions from customers. It is understood ANZ believes its deal with ASIC has been drafted in such a way that will not open the door to such actions.